Recent elevated error rates across Claude's Opus 4.6/4.7 and Sonnet models—reported on May 15, 14, 13, and 12—have solidified trader consensus around 6+ downtime days in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 37.3% for 6-8 days, 35.5% for 9-11, and 33.5% for 12+, reflecting at least seven confirmed incident days so far amid 15 elapsed. Anthropic's aggressive scaling of large language model infrastructure to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok has strained capacity, causing repeated partial outages in Claude.ai, API endpoints, and Claude Code, as high user demand post-Claude 4.x updates exceeds provisioning. Swing factors include near-term fixes from ongoing investigations versus potential surges; low 14% odds for 3-5 days underscore doubts on rapid stabilization before May's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Claude go down on __ days in May?
Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
6-8 37.2%
9-11 34%
12+ 31%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 Vol.
$33,491 Vol.
31 mag 2026
3-5
14%
6-8
37%
9-11
34%
12+
34%
6-8 37.2%
9-11 34%
12+ 31%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 Vol.
$33,491 Vol.
31 mag 2026
3-5
$3,858 Vol.
14%
6-8
$1,093 Vol.
37%
9-11
$659 Vol.
34%
12+
$4,982 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates across Claude's Opus 4.6/4.7 and Sonnet models—reported on May 15, 14, 13, and 12—have solidified trader consensus around 6+ downtime days in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 37.3% for 6-8 days, 35.5% for 9-11, and 33.5% for 12+, reflecting at least seven confirmed incident days so far amid 15 elapsed. Anthropic's aggressive scaling of large language model infrastructure to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok has strained capacity, causing repeated partial outages in Claude.ai, API endpoints, and Claude Code, as high user demand post-Claude 4.x updates exceeds provisioning. Swing factors include near-term fixes from ongoing investigations versus potential surges; low 14% odds for 3-5 days underscore doubts on rapid stabilization before May's end.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercato aperto: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$33,491Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error rates across Claude's Opus 4.6/4.7 and Sonnet models—reported on May 15, 14, 13, and 12—have solidified trader consensus around 6+ downtime days in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 37.3% for 6-8 days, 35.5% for 9-11, and 33.5% for 12+, reflecting at least seven confirmed incident days so far amid 15 elapsed. Anthropic's aggressive scaling of large language model infrastructure to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok has strained capacity, causing repeated partial outages in Claude.ai, API endpoints, and Claude Code, as high user demand post-Claude 4.x updates exceeds provisioning. Swing factors include near-term fixes from ongoing investigations versus potential surges; low 14% odds for 3-5 days underscore doubts on rapid stabilization before May's end.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$33,491Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated error rates across Claude's Opus 4.6/4.7 and Sonnet models—reported on May 15, 14, 13, and 12—have solidified trader consensus around 6+ downtime days in May, with market-implied odds tightly clustered at 37.3% for 6-8 days, 35.5% for 9-11, and 33.5% for 12+, reflecting at least seven confirmed incident days so far amid 15 elapsed. Anthropic's aggressive scaling of large language model infrastructure to compete with OpenAI's GPT series and xAI's Grok has strained capacity, causing repeated partial outages in Claude.ai, API endpoints, and Claude Code, as high user demand post-Claude 4.x updates exceeds provisioning. Swing factors include near-term fixes from ongoing investigations versus potential surges; low 14% odds for 3-5 days underscore doubts on rapid stabilization before May's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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