Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior guidance for Cybercab volume production this year, directly supporting the 86.5% market-implied probability that the company will not sell the robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026. Limited early builds began at Giga Texas in February, yet scaling remains constrained by 4680 battery output, “unboxed” manufacturing ramp-up, and unresolved Full Self-Driving software milestones expected only in late 2026 or 2027. Regulatory approval for customer sales of a vehicle lacking manual controls adds further friction. Musk has since publicly aligned the $30k price point with 2027 deliveries, reinforcing trader consensus that meaningful commercial availability falls outside the current calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Tesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Sì
14% probabilità
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
14% probabilità
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior guidance for Cybercab volume production this year, directly supporting the 86.5% market-implied probability that the company will not sell the robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026. Limited early builds began at Giga Texas in February, yet scaling remains constrained by 4680 battery output, “unboxed” manufacturing ramp-up, and unresolved Full Self-Driving software milestones expected only in late 2026 or 2027. Regulatory approval for customer sales of a vehicle lacking manual controls adds further friction. Musk has since publicly aligned the $30k price point with 2027 deliveries, reinforcing trader consensus that meaningful commercial availability falls outside the current calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,896Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior guidance for Cybercab volume production this year, directly supporting the 86.5% market-implied probability that the company will not sell the robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026. Limited early builds began at Giga Texas in February, yet scaling remains constrained by 4680 battery output, “unboxed” manufacturing ramp-up, and unresolved Full Self-Driving software milestones expected only in late 2026 or 2027. Regulatory approval for customer sales of a vehicle lacking manual controls adds further friction. Musk has since publicly aligned the $30k price point with 2027 deliveries, reinforcing trader consensus that meaningful commercial availability falls outside the current calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,896Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior guidance for Cybercab volume production this year, directly supporting the 86.5% market-implied probability that the company will not sell the robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026. Limited early builds began at Giga Texas in February, yet scaling remains constrained by 4680 battery output, “unboxed” manufacturing ramp-up, and unresolved Full Self-Driving software milestones expected only in late 2026 or 2027. Regulatory approval for customer sales of a vehicle lacking manual controls adds further friction. Musk has since publicly aligned the $30k price point with 2027 deliveries, reinforcing trader consensus that meaningful commercial availability falls outside the current calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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