Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the absence of confirmed consumer pricing or preorders despite production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026. Tesla's Q1 shareholder update highlighted volume production ramps for the steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle primarily to expand its Robotaxi fleet, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployments advancing in Texas cities but facing NHTSA regulatory hurdles for public sales without manual controls. Historical delays in Tesla's affordable EV promises, coupled with high capital expenditures for AI compute and scaling, fuel skepticism on hitting the sub-$30k threshold amid cost pressures, though Q2 earnings and FSD approval progress could shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Tesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Sì
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$35,757 Vol.
$35,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the absence of confirmed consumer pricing or preorders despite production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026. Tesla's Q1 shareholder update highlighted volume production ramps for the steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle primarily to expand its Robotaxi fleet, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployments advancing in Texas cities but facing NHTSA regulatory hurdles for public sales without manual controls. Historical delays in Tesla's affordable EV promises, coupled with high capital expenditures for AI compute and scaling, fuel skepticism on hitting the sub-$30k threshold amid cost pressures, though Q2 earnings and FSD approval progress could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$35,757Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the absence of confirmed consumer pricing or preorders despite production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026. Tesla's Q1 shareholder update highlighted volume production ramps for the steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle primarily to expand its Robotaxi fleet, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployments advancing in Texas cities but facing NHTSA regulatory hurdles for public sales without manual controls. Historical delays in Tesla's affordable EV promises, coupled with high capital expenditures for AI compute and scaling, fuel skepticism on hitting the sub-$30k threshold amid cost pressures, though Q2 earnings and FSD approval progress could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,757Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the absence of confirmed consumer pricing or preorders despite production starting at Giga Texas in April 2026. Tesla's Q1 shareholder update highlighted volume production ramps for the steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle primarily to expand its Robotaxi fleet, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployments advancing in Texas cities but facing NHTSA regulatory hurdles for public sales without manual controls. Historical delays in Tesla's affordable EV promises, coupled with high capital expenditures for AI compute and scaling, fuel skepticism on hitting the sub-$30k threshold amid cost pressures, though Q2 earnings and FSD approval progress could shift sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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