The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
48% probabilità
$12,651 Vol.
$12,651 Vol.
30 dic 2026
48% probabilità
$12,651 Vol.
$12,651 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Mercato aperto: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,651Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,651Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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