**Trader consensus at 94% “No” for an AI artwork reaching $10 million at a major auction in 2026 stems primarily from the persistent gap between current market results and the threshold.** The verified record remains $1.08 million for Ai-Da’s “AI God” portrait at Sotheby’s in late 2024, with 2025 sales such as Refik Anadol’s top Christie's lot at $277,200 reflecting steady but limited collector demand. Issues around authorship, training data provenance, and a preference for human-directed AI pieces have capped individual hammer prices well below seven figures at houses like Christie's, Sotheby's, and Phillips. With only months remaining until the December 31 resolution and no announced lots or capability breakthroughs signaling a sudden leap, traders see scant realistic path to the required price. A surprise high-profile sale or rapid sentiment shift in the final quarter could still alter the outcome, though recent patterns suggest strong barriers remain.