Banksy’s pattern of sporadic, event-tied street interventions sustains the slim majority for a new outdoor mural or authenticated piece by year-end. No fresh public works have surfaced since the 2025 High Court and Christmas murals, while recent October exhibitions in Colchester and the Lucas Museum highlight existing or studio pieces rather than new street production. Traders weigh this quiet period against the artist’s history of rapid responses to news cycles and occasional holiday timing, with roughly ten weeks remaining for a possible drop. The 57.5% implied probability reflects that uncertainty, as authentication must come directly from Banksy’s official channels and the work must be created outdoors within the window.