Amazon shares closed at $262.43 on October 9, 2026, following a 3.3% single-day gain amid robust AWS momentum and AI infrastructure expansion. Trader-implied probabilities for the October 16 close cluster around current levels, with $260–$270 bins holding the highest combined weight, reflecting expectations that recent strength from 37% YoY AWS revenue growth and elevated operating margins will sustain price action into the week. The notable 36% probability assigned to closes below $240 incorporates downside risks tied to heavy capital spending, upcoming Q3 earnings on October 29, and broader market volatility, while lower-probability bins above $275 capture potential upside from continued AI adoption and the proposed $7 billion Decart acquisition.