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icon for 12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?

12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?

icon for 12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?

12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

18% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

18% 確率
Polymarket
新規
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability due to the complete absence of credible reports, announcements, or leaks signaling a new pregnancy or birth since the 2025 arrivals of children with Ashley St. Clair and Shivon Zilis. Musk's intense focus on AI development at xAI, Neuralink advances, and Tesla operations leaves little room for public or private family expansions that would resolve by year-end, with typical gestation timelines and confirmation patterns making a fresh conception unlikely to yield a confirmed outcome in the remaining months. Historical private births eventually surface via partners or filings, yet no such signals have emerged amid ongoing platform activity on X. Key catalysts include potential regulatory or earnings events that could indirectly shift attention, though the lack of recent developments sustains the strong consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$653
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability due to the complete absence of credible reports, announcements, or leaks signaling a new pregnancy or birth since the 2025 arrivals of children with Ashley St. Clair and Shivon Zilis. Musk's intense focus on AI development at xAI, Neuralink advances, and Tesla operations leaves little room for public or private family expansions that would resolve by year-end, with typical gestation timelines and confirmation patterns making a fresh conception unlikely to yield a confirmed outcome in the remaining months. Historical private births eventually surface via partners or filings, yet no such signals have emerged amid ongoing platform activity on X. Key catalysts include potential regulatory or earnings events that could indirectly shift attention, though the lack of recent developments sustains the strong consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$653
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count. The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日までにまたイーロンの赤ちゃんが?」で18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、18¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に18%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jun 30, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日までにまたイーロンの赤ちゃんが?」で18%であり、市場がこの結果に18%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「12月31日までにもう一人のイーロンの赤ちゃん?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。