Elon Musk's tweet volume in the August 4-11 window reflects typical high-engagement patterns driven by his real-time commentary on X, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political or meme-driven exchanges. With the 200-219 bracket holding a slim edge at 18.5% implied probability, traders see steady but not exceptional output amid routine platform activity and no major breaking catalysts like product unveilings or regulatory shifts yet materializing. Closely contested neighboring ranges (180-199 at 17.5%, 220-239 at 16.5%) highlight uncertainty around daily fluctuations, where viral threads or quick replies can swing totals by dozens. Historical weekly averages near 200 inform the consensus, though late-week momentum from any SpaceX milestones or cultural moments could still shift the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日200-219 19%
180-199 18%
220-239 17%
160-179 13%
$458,957 Vol.
$458,957 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
2%
140-159
6%
160-179
13%
180-199
18%
200-219
19%
220-239
17%
240-259
12%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 19%
180-199 18%
220-239 17%
160-179 13%
$458,957 Vol.
$458,957 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
2%
140-159
6%
160-179
13%
180-199
18%
200-219
19%
220-239
17%
240-259
12%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's tweet volume in the August 4-11 window reflects typical high-engagement patterns driven by his real-time commentary on X, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political or meme-driven exchanges. With the 200-219 bracket holding a slim edge at 18.5% implied probability, traders see steady but not exceptional output amid routine platform activity and no major breaking catalysts like product unveilings or regulatory shifts yet materializing. Closely contested neighboring ranges (180-199 at 17.5%, 220-239 at 16.5%) highlight uncertainty around daily fluctuations, where viral threads or quick replies can swing totals by dozens. Historical weekly averages near 200 inform the consensus, though late-week momentum from any SpaceX milestones or cultural moments could still shift the distribution before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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