**Recent actions by EU member states against Russian diplomatic personnel have focused on expelling individual diplomats and suspected intelligence officers rather than ambassadors.** Hungary’s September 8, 2026, expulsion of ten Russian mission staff in Budapest—cited as incompatible with Vienna Convention obligations—marked a notable shift under the new government but explicitly preserved diplomatic channels and left the ambassador in place. Similar targeted removals occurred earlier in Austria (three diplomats in May) and Italy (two attaches in July), alongside quiet staff reductions at Russia’s EU mission in Brussels. Poland has urged broader EU-wide cuts to Russian diplomatic numbers and movement restrictions due to hybrid threats, yet these remain proposals without ambassador-level implementation. Broader patterns since 2022 show over 300 Russian diplomats expelled across Europe, primarily lower- or mid-level personnel linked to espionage or sabotage concerns, while ambassadors have generally remained to avoid full rupture of relations. Traders appear to view full ambassador expulsions as a higher-threshold step unlikely before year-end absent major new escalations, consistent with the 83% implied probability on “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent actions by EU member states against Russian diplomatic personnel have focused on expelling individual diplomats and suspected intelligence officers rather than ambassadors.** Hungary’s September 8, 2026, expulsion of ten Russian mission staff in Budapest—cited as incompatible with Vienna Convention obligations—marked a notable shift under the new government but explicitly preserved diplomatic channels and left the ambassador in place. Similar targeted removals occurred earlier in Austria (three diplomats in May) and Italy (two attaches in July), alongside quiet staff reductions at Russia’s EU mission in Brussels.
Poland has urged broader EU-wide cuts to Russian diplomatic numbers and movement restrictions due to hybrid threats, yet these remain proposals without ambassador-level implementation. Broader patterns since 2022 show over 300 Russian diplomats expelled across Europe, primarily lower- or mid-level personnel linked to espionage or sabotage concerns, while ambassadors have generally remained to avoid full rupture of relations.
Traders appear to view full ambassador expulsions as a higher-threshold step unlikely before year-end absent major new escalations, consistent with the 83% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
音量
$1,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent actions by EU member states against Russian diplomatic personnel have focused on expelling individual diplomats and suspected intelligence officers rather than ambassadors.** Hungary’s September 8, 2026, expulsion of ten Russian mission staff in Budapest—cited as incompatible with Vienna Convention obligations—marked a notable shift under the new government but explicitly preserved diplomatic channels and left the ambassador in place. Similar targeted removals occurred earlier in Austria (three diplomats in May) and Italy (two attaches in July), alongside quiet staff reductions at Russia’s EU mission in Brussels.
Poland has urged broader EU-wide cuts to Russian diplomatic numbers and movement restrictions due to hybrid threats, yet these remain proposals without ambassador-level implementation. Broader patterns since 2022 show over 300 Russian diplomats expelled across Europe, primarily lower- or mid-level personnel linked to espionage or sabotage concerns, while ambassadors have generally remained to avoid full rupture of relations.
Traders appear to view full ambassador expulsions as a higher-threshold step unlikely before year-end absent major new escalations, consistent with the 83% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Recent actions by EU member states against Russian diplomatic personnel have focused on expelling individual diplomats and suspected intelligence officers rather than ambassadors.** Hungary’s September 8, 2026, expulsion of ten Russian mission staff in Budapest—cited as incompatible with Vienna Convention obligations—marked a notable shift under the new government but explicitly preserved diplomatic channels and left the ambassador in place. Similar targeted removals occurred earlier in Austria (three diplomats in May) and Italy (two attaches in July), alongside quiet staff reductions at Russia’s EU mission in Brussels. Poland has urged broader EU-wide cuts to Russian diplomatic numbers and movement restrictions due to hybrid threats, yet these remain proposals without ambassador-level implementation. Broader patterns since 2022 show over 300 Russian diplomats expelled across Europe, primarily lower- or mid-level personnel linked to espionage or sabotage concerns, while ambassadors have generally remained to avoid full rupture of relations. Traders appear to view full ambassador expulsions as a higher-threshold step unlikely before year-end absent major new escalations, consistent with the 83% implied probability on “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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