**No single EU member state has signaled plans to expel a Russian ambassador by December 31, 2026, supporting the 82.5% trader consensus against the outcome.** Recent expulsions have instead targeted lower-level diplomatic staff: Hungary ordered 10 Russian embassy personnel to leave in September over alleged Vienna Convention violations tied to espionage concerns, prompting reciprocal Russian action; Germany required roughly 150 Russian diplomatic staff and family members to depart the same month following a suspected sabotage attempt at Leipzig airport. The EU Foreign Affairs Council has focused on coordinated restrictions, including tighter notification or authorization rules for Russian diplomats traveling outside their host country and possible limits on tourist visas, rather than ambassador-level measures. Poland’s foreign minister has advocated closing Russian consulates and capping accreditations, but these remain proposals under discussion alongside broader sanctions packages targeting Russia’s military-industrial base. Ambassador expulsions represent a sharper diplomatic rupture than staff actions or travel curbs, with no verified announcements or imminent triggers in the remaining weeks of 2026.