Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 67.5% implied probability to top the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final leaderboard, driven by standout rehearsals showcasing live violin—secured through Finnish persistence against initial EBU resistance—and broad appeal blending disco energy with classical flair, earning frontrunner status in bookie odds, OGAE polls, and community rankings. Greece's "Ferto" by Akylas and Israel's "Michelle" by Noam Bettan share 13.5% as viable challengers, propelled by Greece's late pre-semi odds surge from edgy staging buzz and Israel's model-predicted strength amid boycott controversy from five nations. Croatia's "Andromeda" at 5.9% reflects solid televote potential, while lower contenders lag on weaker rehearsal feedback; full points breakdown post-Grand Final on May 16 highlights persistent jury-televote unpredictability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 68%
Greece 14%
Israel 14%
Croatia 5.9%
$210,671 Vol.
$210,671 Vol.
2026/05/12
Finland
68%
Greece
14%
Israel
14%
Croatia
6%
Moldova
2%
Poland
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Finland 68%
Greece 14%
Israel 14%
Croatia 5.9%
$210,671 Vol.
$210,671 Vol.
2026/05/12
Finland
$26,946 Vol.
68%
Greece
$19,798 Vol.
14%
Israel
$13,530 Vol.
14%
Croatia
$23,003 Vol.
6%
Moldova
$25,653 Vol.
2%
Poland
$15,373 Vol.
<1%
Sweden
$14,183 Vol.
<1%
Serbia
$10,985 Vol.
<1%
Lithuania
$13,757 Vol.
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 67.5% implied probability to top the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final leaderboard, driven by standout rehearsals showcasing live violin—secured through Finnish persistence against initial EBU resistance—and broad appeal blending disco energy with classical flair, earning frontrunner status in bookie odds, OGAE polls, and community rankings. Greece's "Ferto" by Akylas and Israel's "Michelle" by Noam Bettan share 13.5% as viable challengers, propelled by Greece's late pre-semi odds surge from edgy staging buzz and Israel's model-predicted strength amid boycott controversy from five nations. Croatia's "Andromeda" at 5.9% reflects solid televote potential, while lower contenders lag on weaker rehearsal feedback; full points breakdown post-Grand Final on May 16 highlights persistent jury-televote unpredictability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
マーケット開始日： May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
音量
$210,671終了日
2026/05/12マーケット開始日
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 67.5% implied probability to top the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final leaderboard, driven by standout rehearsals showcasing live violin—secured through Finnish persistence against initial EBU resistance—and broad appeal blending disco energy with classical flair, earning frontrunner status in bookie odds, OGAE polls, and community rankings. Greece's "Ferto" by Akylas and Israel's "Michelle" by Noam Bettan share 13.5% as viable challengers, propelled by Greece's late pre-semi odds surge from edgy staging buzz and Israel's model-predicted strength amid boycott controversy from five nations. Croatia's "Andromeda" at 5.9% reflects solid televote potential, while lower contenders lag on weaker rehearsal feedback; full points breakdown post-Grand Final on May 16 highlights persistent jury-televote unpredictability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
音量
$210,671終了日
2026/05/12マーケット開始日
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 67.5% implied probability to top the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final leaderboard, driven by standout rehearsals showcasing live violin—secured through Finnish persistence against initial EBU resistance—and broad appeal blending disco energy with classical flair, earning frontrunner status in bookie odds, OGAE polls, and community rankings. Greece's "Ferto" by Akylas and Israel's "Michelle" by Noam Bettan share 13.5% as viable challengers, propelled by Greece's late pre-semi odds surge from edgy staging buzz and Israel's model-predicted strength amid boycott controversy from five nations. Croatia's "Andromeda" at 5.9% reflects solid televote potential, while lower contenders lag on weaker rehearsal feedback; full points breakdown post-Grand Final on May 16 highlights persistent jury-televote unpredictability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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