Recent legislative inaction and a compressed timeline explain the 81.5% trader consensus against a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025 extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0%, 15%, and 20%, with inflation-adjusted brackets applying for 2026. Although Trump administration officials floated indexing gains for inflation and expanding the primary residence exclusion in mid-August 2026 as potential midterm messaging, no such measures have advanced through Congress or received executive implementation. With only months remaining before year-end and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the probability of passage and effect remains low under current procedural and political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
16% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative inaction and a compressed timeline explain the 81.5% trader consensus against a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025 extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0%, 15%, and 20%, with inflation-adjusted brackets applying for 2026. Although Trump administration officials floated indexing gains for inflation and expanding the primary residence exclusion in mid-August 2026 as potential midterm messaging, no such measures have advanced through Congress or received executive implementation. With only months remaining before year-end and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the probability of passage and effect remains low under current procedural and political conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
音量
$95終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative inaction and a compressed timeline explain the 81.5% trader consensus against a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025 extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0%, 15%, and 20%, with inflation-adjusted brackets applying for 2026. Although Trump administration officials floated indexing gains for inflation and expanding the primary residence exclusion in mid-August 2026 as potential midterm messaging, no such measures have advanced through Congress or received executive implementation. With only months remaining before year-end and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the probability of passage and effect remains low under current procedural and political conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$95終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legislative inaction and a compressed timeline explain the 81.5% trader consensus against a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025 extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0%, 15%, and 20%, with inflation-adjusted brackets applying for 2026. Although Trump administration officials floated indexing gains for inflation and expanding the primary residence exclusion in mid-August 2026 as potential midterm messaging, no such measures have advanced through Congress or received executive implementation. With only months remaining before year-end and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the probability of passage and effect remains low under current procedural and political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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