Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, as the deadlocked jury leaves that charge unresolved for a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, now 74 and in declining health, continues serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing both that ruling and a separate upheld New York sexual-assault finding that could add up to 25 years. With ongoing appeals, consecutive-sentence questions, and his advanced age, market-implied odds heavily favor scenarios where he avoids extended further incarceration. Upcoming decisions on whether prosecutors retry the mistrial case or how appeals courts rule on his existing terms remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
実刑なし 74.4%
20〜30年 7.8%
5年未満 5.0%
5～10年 3.7%
$993,980 Vol.
$993,980 Vol.
2025/12/31
実刑なし
74%
5年未満
5%
5～10年
4%
10〜20年
3%
20〜30年
8%
30年以上
1%
実刑なし 74.4%
20〜30年 7.8%
5年未満 5.0%
5～10年 3.7%
$993,980 Vol.
$993,980 Vol.
2025/12/31
実刑なし
$349,397 Vol.
74%
5年未満
$131,350 Vol.
5%
5～10年
$80,471 Vol.
4%
10〜20年
$159,332 Vol.
3%
20〜30年
$201,001 Vol.
8%
30年以上
$72,473 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, as the deadlocked jury leaves that charge unresolved for a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, now 74 and in declining health, continues serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing both that ruling and a separate upheld New York sexual-assault finding that could add up to 25 years. With ongoing appeals, consecutive-sentence questions, and his advanced age, market-implied odds heavily favor scenarios where he avoids extended further incarceration. Upcoming decisions on whether prosecutors retry the mistrial case or how appeals courts rule on his existing terms remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
音量
$993,980終了日
2025/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, as the deadlocked jury leaves that charge unresolved for a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, now 74 and in declining health, continues serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing both that ruling and a separate upheld New York sexual-assault finding that could add up to 25 years. With ongoing appeals, consecutive-sentence questions, and his advanced age, market-implied odds heavily favor scenarios where he avoids extended further incarceration. Upcoming decisions on whether prosecutors retry the mistrial case or how appeals courts rule on his existing terms remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$993,980終了日
2025/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, as the deadlocked jury leaves that charge unresolved for a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, now 74 and in declining health, continues serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction while appealing both that ruling and a separate upheld New York sexual-assault finding that could add up to 25 years. With ongoing appeals, consecutive-sentence questions, and his advanced age, market-implied odds heavily favor scenarios where he avoids extended further incarceration. Upcoming decisions on whether prosecutors retry the mistrial case or how appeals courts rule on his existing terms remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問