Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日の香港の最高気温は?
28°C 35%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 8%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C
35%
29°C
29%
30°C
8%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 35%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 8%
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C
35%
29°C
29%
30°C
8%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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