Recent model guidance shows a post-heatwave transition over western Europe, with an Atlantic ridge weakening and allowing cooler maritime air and increased instability to reach northern France by July 23. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS place daytime maxima near 25–27 °C, with small differences in cloud cover, timing of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing determining whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of that range. Soil moisture from preceding storms and modest northerly flow further suppress extreme values, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated runs and morning soundings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月23日のパリの最高気温は?
26°C 39%
25°C 33%
24°C 16%
27°C 13%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
16%
25°C
33%
26°C
39%
27°C
13%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 39%
25°C 33%
24°C 16%
27°C 13%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
16%
25°C
33%
26°C
39%
27°C
13%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model guidance shows a post-heatwave transition over western Europe, with an Atlantic ridge weakening and allowing cooler maritime air and increased instability to reach northern France by July 23. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS place daytime maxima near 25–27 °C, with small differences in cloud cover, timing of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing determining whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of that range. Soil moisture from preceding storms and modest northerly flow further suppress extreme values, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated runs and morning soundings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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