Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月11日の台北の最高気温は?
30°C 20.0%
29°C 20%
28°C 18%
31°C 16.5%
$14,482 Vol.
$14,482 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
9%
28°C
18%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
17%
32°C or higher
12%
30°C 20.0%
29°C 20%
28°C 18%
31°C 16.5%
$14,482 Vol.
$14,482 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
9%
28°C
18%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
17%
32°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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