Recent forecast models from regional meteorological services indicate a peak temperature near 30°C in Tel Aviv on October 3 under mostly clear skies, light westerly winds, and stable high-pressure conditions typical for early autumn in the eastern Mediterranean. This aligns with the market's strong preference for 30°C (64.5% implied probability) over nearby outcomes, as current runs show daytime maxima in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius—slightly above the early-October climatological average of 26–28°C. Model consensus remains consistent on minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, though small revisions in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns could shift the daily high by 1–2°C before resolution. Updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities.
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