**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air. Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月29日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
6月29日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
12°C 61%
11°C 26%
13°C 14%
14°C 1.3%
新規
$10,355 Vol.
新規
$10,355 Vol.
2026/06/29
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
26%
12°C
61%
13°C
14%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 61%
11°C 26%
13°C 14%
14°C 1.3%
新規
$10,355 Vol.
新規
$10,355 Vol.
2026/06/29
6°C or below
$216 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$257 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$319 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,205 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$485 Vol.
1%
11°C
$2,055 Vol.
26%
12°C
$1,183 Vol.
61%
13°C
$2,731 Vol.
14%
14°C
$629 Vol.
1%
15°C
$962 Vol.
1%
16°C or higher
$314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air.
Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$10,355終了日
2026/06/29マーケット開始日
Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air.
Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$10,355終了日
2026/06/29マーケット開始日
Jun 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Recent official forecasts from MetService and other sources position 11–12°C as the most probable range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (12°C at 50%, 11°C at 22%).** Wellington’s winter climate features modest daytime highs near the long-term June average of 12–13°C, moderated by its exposed coastal location and frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean that advect cooler maritime air. Current guidance indicates a few showers clearing on the 29th under southerly winds, which typically limit daytime warming by several degrees through cloud cover, wind mixing, and reduced insolation. NIWA’s April–June seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, providing a climatological baseline that supports the market-implied distribution. Model consensus and short-range updates show limited scope for significant warming or cooling, keeping probabilities concentrated around 11–12°C while assigning low odds to outliers above 14°C or below 10°C. Traders appear to be weighting the latest MetService extended forecast and expected synoptic pattern heavily, with uncertainty mainly around exact shower timing and wind strength.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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