**Market-implied odds place the highest temperature in Wellington on October 6 at 16°C with near-certainty (100.0%), reflecting observed conditions from official stations under stable high-pressure systems and clear skies.** Springtime southerly airflow and northerly winds have supported mild daytime warming, consistent with climatological highs of 13–16°C for early October in the region. Hourly observations peaked near 15–16°C in the early afternoon before cooling, aligning with model consensus from agencies like MetService. This outcome matches verified maximum readings rather than forecasts. Only a late-day measurement revision or use of an atypical station could alter resolution, though current data strongly support the consensus.
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