Recent polling for Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations shows a near-even split, with surveys from Gallup and Maskína fluctuating between narrow Yes or No leads of 1–4 points among decided voters. Fisheries rights, sovereignty over territorial waters, cost-of-living pressures, and the krona’s stability dominate debate, while broader security considerations tied to regional geopolitics have added urgency but not shifted the balance decisively. High early-voting turnout has not clarified the outcome, leaving trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for “Other” alongside narrow victory margins for either side. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual membership terms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日反対 15％以上 35.0%
はい <3％ 32%
反対 3〜6% 29%
ノー 9〜12％ 19%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
はい 15％以上
1%
はい 12～15％
2%
はい 9～12%
1%
はい 6〜9%
2%
はい 3～6％
4%
はい <3％
20%
いいえ <3%
16%
反対 3〜6%
16%
ノー 6〜9％
18%
ノー 9〜12％
19%
ノー 12〜15%
14%
反対 15％以上
35%
反対 15％以上 35.0%
はい <3％ 32%
反対 3〜6% 29%
ノー 9〜12％ 19%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
はい 15％以上
$278 Vol.
1%
はい 12～15％
$149 Vol.
2%
はい 9～12%
$194 Vol.
1%
はい 6〜9%
$181 Vol.
2%
はい 3～6％
$225 Vol.
4%
はい <3％
$254 Vol.
20%
いいえ <3%
$200 Vol.
16%
反対 3〜6%
$201 Vol.
16%
ノー 6〜9％
$284 Vol.
18%
ノー 9〜12％
$274 Vol.
19%
ノー 12〜15%
$216 Vol.
14%
反対 15％以上
$1,551 Vol.
35%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling for Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations shows a near-even split, with surveys from Gallup and Maskína fluctuating between narrow Yes or No leads of 1–4 points among decided voters. Fisheries rights, sovereignty over territorial waters, cost-of-living pressures, and the krona’s stability dominate debate, while broader security considerations tied to regional geopolitics have added urgency but not shifted the balance decisively. High early-voting turnout has not clarified the outcome, leaving trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for “Other” alongside narrow victory margins for either side. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual membership terms.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
音量
$4,006終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling for Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations shows a near-even split, with surveys from Gallup and Maskína fluctuating between narrow Yes or No leads of 1–4 points among decided voters. Fisheries rights, sovereignty over territorial waters, cost-of-living pressures, and the krona’s stability dominate debate, while broader security considerations tied to regional geopolitics have added urgency but not shifted the balance decisively. High early-voting turnout has not clarified the outcome, leaving trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for “Other” alongside narrow victory margins for either side. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual membership terms.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$4,006終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations shows a near-even split, with surveys from Gallup and Maskína fluctuating between narrow Yes or No leads of 1–4 points among decided voters. Fisheries rights, sovereignty over territorial waters, cost-of-living pressures, and the krona’s stability dominate debate, while broader security considerations tied to regional geopolitics have added urgency but not shifted the balance decisively. High early-voting turnout has not clarified the outcome, leaving trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for “Other” alongside narrow victory margins for either side. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual membership terms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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