**The referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, occurs in a closely divided political environment where polls show the yes and no sides separated by only a few percentage points, with notable undecided voters.** Recent surveys from Maskína and Gallup indicate support for reopening talks hovering near 50-51% among decided respondents, narrowing from wider leads earlier in the summer amid intense campaigning focused on fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, currency stability, and shifting Arctic geopolitics. Iceland’s recent national votes, including the 2024 parliamentary election at roughly 81% turnout, establish a high baseline, but referendum participation has varied more widely in the past. The tight yes/no contest encourages strong mobilization by both the governing coalition and opponents, while urban-rural divides—stronger yes support in the capital region—add uncertainty to overall participation. Trader pricing across the 65-80% turnout buckets reflects expectations of solid engagement driven by the issue’s salience, though outcomes remain sensitive to last-minute campaign intensity, weather on voting day, and any final shifts among undecided voters that could alter mobilization dynamics.