**Trader consensus heavily favors the Jones Act requirements remaining in place through year-end, reflected in the 92.5% probability on "No."** Recent developments center on temporary, defense-related waivers rather than permanent repeal or broad removal. In March 2026, the Department of Homeland Security granted a 60-day national defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) at the request of the Department of War, covering energy commodities and fertilizer amid Middle East disruptions. This was extended 90 days through mid-August, then again through November 15, 2026, with added case-by-case reviews and documentation requirements involving consultation with the Maritime Administration. These limited, time-bound measures have drawn strong opposition from domestic maritime stakeholders, including the Seafarers International Union and American Maritime Partnership, who argue extensions undermine U.S. shipbuilding, crews, and security. No legislation advancing permanent changes or full removal has advanced in Congress, and structural barriers—including entrenched support for the 1920 Merchant Marine Act—make comprehensive reform unlikely before December 31. Upcoming waiver expiration and any midterm-related policy signals could influence short-term shipping but do not alter the low odds of statutory elimination.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors the Jones Act requirements remaining in place through year-end, reflected in the 92.5% probability on "No."**
Recent developments center on temporary, defense-related waivers rather than permanent repeal or broad removal. In March 2026, the Department of Homeland Security granted a 60-day national defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) at the request of the Department of War, covering energy commodities and fertilizer amid Middle East disruptions. This was extended 90 days through mid-August, then again through November 15, 2026, with added case-by-case reviews and documentation requirements involving consultation with the Maritime Administration.
These limited, time-bound measures have drawn strong opposition from domestic maritime stakeholders, including the Seafarers International Union and American Maritime Partnership, who argue extensions undermine U.S. shipbuilding, crews, and security. No legislation advancing permanent changes or full removal has advanced in Congress, and structural barriers—including entrenched support for the 1920 Merchant Marine Act—make comprehensive reform unlikely before December 31. Upcoming waiver expiration and any midterm-related policy signals could influence short-term shipping but do not alter the low odds of statutory elimination.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
音量
$1,067終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors the Jones Act requirements remaining in place through year-end, reflected in the 92.5% probability on "No."**
Recent developments center on temporary, defense-related waivers rather than permanent repeal or broad removal. In March 2026, the Department of Homeland Security granted a 60-day national defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) at the request of the Department of War, covering energy commodities and fertilizer amid Middle East disruptions. This was extended 90 days through mid-August, then again through November 15, 2026, with added case-by-case reviews and documentation requirements involving consultation with the Maritime Administration.
These limited, time-bound measures have drawn strong opposition from domestic maritime stakeholders, including the Seafarers International Union and American Maritime Partnership, who argue extensions undermine U.S. shipbuilding, crews, and security. No legislation advancing permanent changes or full removal has advanced in Congress, and structural barriers—including entrenched support for the 1920 Merchant Marine Act—make comprehensive reform unlikely before December 31. Upcoming waiver expiration and any midterm-related policy signals could influence short-term shipping but do not alter the low odds of statutory elimination.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,067終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors the Jones Act requirements remaining in place through year-end, reflected in the 92.5% probability on "No."** Recent developments center on temporary, defense-related waivers rather than permanent repeal or broad removal. In March 2026, the Department of Homeland Security granted a 60-day national defense waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) at the request of the Department of War, covering energy commodities and fertilizer amid Middle East disruptions. This was extended 90 days through mid-August, then again through November 15, 2026, with added case-by-case reviews and documentation requirements involving consultation with the Maritime Administration. These limited, time-bound measures have drawn strong opposition from domestic maritime stakeholders, including the Seafarers International Union and American Maritime Partnership, who argue extensions undermine U.S. shipbuilding, crews, and security. No legislation advancing permanent changes or full removal has advanced in Congress, and structural barriers—including entrenched support for the 1920 Merchant Marine Act—make comprehensive reform unlikely before December 31. Upcoming waiver expiration and any midterm-related policy signals could influence short-term shipping but do not alter the low odds of statutory elimination.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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