**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Khamenei's official channels in the August 4–11 window, with 65.5% on <5 and 29.5% on 5–9.** This positioning stems from the post-February 2026 transition following Ali Khamenei's death, under which Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the role and the Supreme Leader's Public Relations Office maintains tight control over messaging. Recent activity shows limited direct output, with the office issuing a targeted August 4 statement rejecting unauthorized reports on Mojtaba's exchanges with President Pezeshkian to curb intra-regime speculation and project unity amid ongoing U.S. tensions. Regime priorities currently center on internal consolidation, security measures, and diplomatic positioning rather than high-volume public statements, consistent with reduced public-facing engagement observed since the leadership change. Higher bins remain low-probability because scheduled events or escalations capable of prompting frequent official releases have not materialized in the resolution period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 66%
5-9 29%
10-14 5.2%
20-24 <1%
$16,883 Vol.
$16,883 Vol.
<5
66%
5-9
29%
10-14
5%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 66%
5-9 29%
10-14 5.2%
20-24 <1%
$16,883 Vol.
$16,883 Vol.
<5
66%
5-9
29%
10-14
5%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Khamenei's official channels in the August 4–11 window, with 65.5% on <5 and 29.5% on 5–9.** This positioning stems from the post-February 2026 transition following Ali Khamenei's death, under which Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the role and the Supreme Leader's Public Relations Office maintains tight control over messaging. Recent activity shows limited direct output, with the office issuing a targeted August 4 statement rejecting unauthorized reports on Mojtaba's exchanges with President Pezeshkian to curb intra-regime speculation and project unity amid ongoing U.S. tensions. Regime priorities currently center on internal consolidation, security measures, and diplomatic positioning rather than high-volume public statements, consistent with reduced public-facing engagement observed since the leadership change. Higher bins remain low-probability because scheduled events or escalations capable of prompting frequent official releases have not materialized in the resolution period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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