**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on his official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his historically low posting frequency.** The 78% probability on the <5 bin, with sharply declining odds for higher ranges, aligns with patterns of measured, infrequent official statements even during periods of institutional activity. Recent developments include a cluster of posts on August 9 announcing senior appointments—such as a political advisor and a representative to the Supreme National Security Council—alongside summaries of a presidential meeting on economic and military matters. These bursts remain limited in volume and do not signal a sustained increase in output. Broader context involves ongoing regime priorities around internal stability, economic management, and security coordination amid regional tensions, yet the Leader’s communications continue to prioritize substance over volume. No major escalations or public milestones within the resolution window have prompted elevated activity, supporting the current pricing as a reflection of established posting behavior.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 89%
5-9 10%
10-14 1.4%
15-19 1.3%
$23,046 Vol.
$23,046 Vol.
<5
89%
5-9
10%
10-14
1%
15-19
1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 89%
5-9 10%
10-14 1.4%
15-19 1.3%
$23,046 Vol.
$23,046 Vol.
<5
89%
5-9
10%
10-14
1%
15-19
1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on his official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) during August 4–11, 2026, reflecting his historically low posting frequency.** The 78% probability on the <5 bin, with sharply declining odds for higher ranges, aligns with patterns of measured, infrequent official statements even during periods of institutional activity. Recent developments include a cluster of posts on August 9 announcing senior appointments—such as a political advisor and a representative to the Supreme National Security Council—alongside summaries of a presidential meeting on economic and military matters. These bursts remain limited in volume and do not signal a sustained increase in output. Broader context involves ongoing regime priorities around internal stability, economic management, and security coordination amid regional tensions, yet the Leader’s communications continue to prioritize substance over volume. No major escalations or public milestones within the resolution window have prompted elevated activity, supporting the current pricing as a reflection of established posting behavior.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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