**The @khamenei_ir account has maintained a steady cadence of quote-style posts tied to Arbaeen observances and resistance themes since Ali Khamenei’s July 2026 death, with Mojtaba Khamenei-linked activity adding visibility.** Multiple daily outputs in early August—already six posts by August 3—reflect institutional continuity and religious timing rather than breaking political developments. Traders price the 5-9 bin highest because historical posting patterns during similar commemorative periods cluster in this narrow range, while the 10-14 bin captures the modest upside from continued daily activity through the August 7 resolution window. No major escalations or official announcements have altered the baseline rate in recent days, keeping higher bins at low single-digit probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5-9 73%
10-14 25.1%
15-19 4.3%
50-54 <1%
$17,336 Vol.
$17,336 Vol.
2026/08/07
5-9
73%
10-14
25%
15-19
4%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
5-9 73%
10-14 25.1%
15-19 4.3%
50-54 <1%
$17,336 Vol.
$17,336 Vol.
2026/08/07
5-9
$4,943 Vol.
73%
10-14
$3,001 Vol.
25%
15-19
$1,129 Vol.
4%
20-24
$559 Vol.
1%
25-29
$346 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$315 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$370 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$354 Vol.
1%
45-49
$311 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$329 Vol.
1%
55-59
$345 Vol.
1%
60+
$318 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**The @khamenei_ir account has maintained a steady cadence of quote-style posts tied to Arbaeen observances and resistance themes since Ali Khamenei’s July 2026 death, with Mojtaba Khamenei-linked activity adding visibility.** Multiple daily outputs in early August—already six posts by August 3—reflect institutional continuity and religious timing rather than breaking political developments. Traders price the 5-9 bin highest because historical posting patterns during similar commemorative periods cluster in this narrow range, while the 10-14 bin captures the modest upside from continued daily activity through the August 7 resolution window. No major escalations or official announcements have altered the baseline rate in recent days, keeping higher bins at low single-digit probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
音量
$17,336終了日
2026/08/07マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**The @khamenei_ir account has maintained a steady cadence of quote-style posts tied to Arbaeen observances and resistance themes since Ali Khamenei’s July 2026 death, with Mojtaba Khamenei-linked activity adding visibility.** Multiple daily outputs in early August—already six posts by August 3—reflect institutional continuity and religious timing rather than breaking political developments. Traders price the 5-9 bin highest because historical posting patterns during similar commemorative periods cluster in this narrow range, while the 10-14 bin captures the modest upside from continued daily activity through the August 7 resolution window. No major escalations or official announcements have altered the baseline rate in recent days, keeping higher bins at low single-digit probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$17,336終了日
2026/08/07マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The @khamenei_ir account has maintained a steady cadence of quote-style posts tied to Arbaeen observances and resistance themes since Ali Khamenei’s July 2026 death, with Mojtaba Khamenei-linked activity adding visibility.** Multiple daily outputs in early August—already six posts by August 3—reflect institutional continuity and religious timing rather than breaking political developments. Traders price the 5-9 bin highest because historical posting patterns during similar commemorative periods cluster in this narrow range, while the 10-14 bin captures the modest upside from continued daily activity through the August 7 resolution window. No major escalations or official announcements have altered the baseline rate in recent days, keeping higher bins at low single-digit probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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