Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weights model to date, has fueled trader focus on a faster K4 successor amid strong benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks. The Beijing lab is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger follow-on model, though U.S. export controls and recent accusations from Anthropic regarding model distillation and request routing introduce delays and uncertainty. Recent activity centers on the September 11 K2.8 Preview rollout for Kimi Code, which delivers near-K3 performance with greater efficiency, rather than flagship advancement. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude series, combined with Moonshot’s history of rapid iteration, supports speculation around a late-2026 window, but compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny remain key swing factors for any public release by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,851 Vol.
2026/10/31
2026年10月31日
3%
2026年12月31日
6%
$17,851 Vol.
2026年10月31日
$9,518 Vol.
3%
2026年12月31日
$8,333 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weights model to date, has fueled trader focus on a faster K4 successor amid strong benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks. The Beijing lab is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger follow-on model, though U.S. export controls and recent accusations from Anthropic regarding model distillation and request routing introduce delays and uncertainty. Recent activity centers on the September 11 K2.8 Preview rollout for Kimi Code, which delivers near-K3 performance with greater efficiency, rather than flagship advancement. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude series, combined with Moonshot’s history of rapid iteration, supports speculation around a late-2026 window, but compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny remain key swing factors for any public release by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
音量
$17,851終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weights model to date, has fueled trader focus on a faster K4 successor amid strong benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks. The Beijing lab is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger follow-on model, though U.S. export controls and recent accusations from Anthropic regarding model distillation and request routing introduce delays and uncertainty. Recent activity centers on the September 11 K2.8 Preview rollout for Kimi Code, which delivers near-K3 performance with greater efficiency, rather than flagship advancement. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude series, combined with Moonshot’s history of rapid iteration, supports speculation around a late-2026 window, but compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny remain key swing factors for any public release by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$17,851終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weights model to date, has fueled trader focus on a faster K4 successor amid strong benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks. The Beijing lab is actively seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger follow-on model, though U.S. export controls and recent accusations from Anthropic regarding model distillation and request routing introduce delays and uncertainty. Recent activity centers on the September 11 K2.8 Preview rollout for Kimi Code, which delivers near-K3 performance with greater efficiency, rather than flagship advancement. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude series, combined with Moonshot’s history of rapid iteration, supports speculation around a late-2026 window, but compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny remain key swing factors for any public release by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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