**Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C low in Ankara on October 13, backed by convergent numerical weather prediction outputs showing overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly flow.** Official guidance from regional models places the minimum near 12–13°C, yet market-implied odds reflect adjustments for measurement site specifics and typical urban heat-island effects at Ankara’s elevation. Recent surface observations confirm temperatures falling through the mid-teens Celsius this evening with dew points supporting further decline. A realistic challenge would require stronger-than-forecast radiational cooling under clearing skies or a shift to drier, downslope flow that accelerates temperature drop below model consensus before dawn.