Strong model consensus from global and regional numerical weather prediction systems, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for an 8°C minimum in Beijing on October 15. Clear skies and light winds overnight have promoted efficient radiative cooling from the surface, consistent with mid-October climatology for the North China Plain where diurnal ranges often reach 10–15°C. Official station observations at the Beijing site will resolve the market, with any final adjustment hinging on the precise timing of the overnight low. Unexpected increases in low-level moisture or wind could modestly raise the minimum, though current ensemble spreads remain narrow.