Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on October 3 will likely fall in the 12–14 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds that limit strong radiational cooling. This places the outcome near the historical average low of 12 °C for the date while leaving room for modest downward or upward shifts depending on final cloud cover and boundary-layer wind direction. The near-even market split between sub-7 °C and 16 °C+ outcomes reflects remaining ensemble spread and sensitivity to small changes in steering flow two days out, typical for short-range temperature resolution in transitional autumn conditions. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance will refine the range ahead of market close.