Current ensemble forecasts for Buenos Aires on October 2 point to overnight lows near 10–12°C, shaped by moderate southerly to easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that reduces radiative cooling under spring transitional conditions. This positioning keeps the market evenly split between the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher brackets at 49.5% each, as traders weigh model spread in the exact minimum. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal passage—stronger northerly advection or delayed cloud build-up could lift the low above 14°C, while clearer skies and lighter winds would favor readings near or below 9°C. Historical October minima average around 11–13°C, underscoring the narrow window for resolution.