**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low in Chengdu on October 12, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from regional meteorological models.** Recent observations and ensemble predictions show overnight minimums stabilizing near 17–18°C under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and typical autumn radiative cooling patterns for the Sichuan Basin. Historical climatology places average October lows around 16°C, with current conditions aligning closely to this baseline without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover that would suppress temperatures further. Near-real-time station data through midday confirm daytime highs in the mid-20s°C, supporting the projected diurnal range. Resolution hinges on official minimum readings from primary Chengdu stations; minor deviations could arise from localized microclimate effects or final measurement adjustments, though model consensus remains tight this close to the end of the period.