Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance for London points to overnight lows of 13–14 °C on 6 October under variable cloud and light westerly winds, keeping the market tightly split between those two outcomes. Milder-than-average conditions stem from a persistent south-westerly flow that limits radiational cooling, while any increase in low cloud or a slight wind shift could drop readings toward 13 °C. Historical climatology shows typical early-October minima near 10 °C, underscoring the current anomalous warmth. Traders are watching the next model cycles and 06:00–09:00 observations, which will determine whether the minimum settles at 14 °C or edges lower.