**Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to overnight lows in the mid- to upper 70s for Miami on September 30, keeping the market tightly bunched around 72–77 °F bins.** Persistent easterly flow, high precipitable water values near 2 inches, and widespread showers and thunderstorms limit radiative cooling and maintain elevated minimum temperatures, with official point forecasts showing 75–79 °F lows amid 60–70 % rain chances. Historical late-September climatology for Miami averages overnight lows near 75 °F, providing context for why traders see little probability mass below 70 °F or above 80 °F. The primary near-term uncertainty stems from the exact timing and coverage of convective activity, which could produce brief clear spells or heavier rain that slightly alters the diurnal minimum. Updated NWS Miami forecast discussions and the next round of high-resolution model runs will provide the key data points traders are watching before resolution.