Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate partly to mostly clear skies overnight into October 5 after a cold front, supporting strong radiative cooling and lows near 50°F in Central Park, though exact values hinge on wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing. Northwest flow behind the front favors drier air and minimal cloud cover, while the urban heat island effect may limit how far temperatures drop in Manhattan compared with suburbs. Ensemble spreads in short-range models reflect modest uncertainty around the 48–55°F window, with any increase in low-level moisture or lingering showers from October 4 raising the floor. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs will refine the minimum before market resolution.