Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on October 9 likely near 9–10°C amid westerly flow and light showers, following a mild early-October pattern. This positions the market's near-even split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes as a reflection of model divergence on overnight radiative cooling and cloud cover under a transitioning Atlantic ridge. Key variables include wind shifts that could enhance or suppress boundary-layer mixing, plus any timing adjustments in frontal passages that alter the diurnal range. Historical October minima average around 5–8°C, underscoring how current guidance sits above baseline yet leaves room for colder outliers if high pressure builds more rapidly than expected. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely resolve the tight probabilities.