**The dominant driver behind the 95.9% market-implied odds for "Under" on the Mega Dragonite ex (primarily the Special Illustration Rare or Hyper Rare variants from the 2026 Ascended Heroes set) is the clear downward price trajectory since the set's early-year release.** Raw copies of the top chase printing have fallen from peaks near or above $800 toward the $600–$650 range in recent weeks, with 30-day declines of 15–29% across tracked platforms reflecting increased supply after the initial hype cycle and typical post-launch correction for modern Pokémon singles. Traders see limited catalysts for reversal before September 30, as ongoing liquidity and cooling collector interest continue to pressure values. A realistic upset would require an unexpected surge in tournament playability, a grading frenzy pushing PSA 10 premiums, or a broader Pokémon TCG market rebound that lifts chase cards across the board.