**Meta’s current market capitalization hovers near $1.40 trillion (share price around $550 as of late August 2026), placing the $1.25–1.50T range as the leading Polymarket outcome at 42.5% implied probability.** Traders appear anchored to this level given recent price action: the stock peaked near $790 in September 2025 before declining sharply, hitting a 52-week low of $520 in March 2026 and trading with notable volatility through mid-2026. Heavy AI infrastructure spending—Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145 billion—has compressed margins and free cash flow, contributing to the pullback even as revenue grew 28–33% year-over-year in recent quarters, supported by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency, Reels engagement gains, and the rollout of models such as the Muse family and Meta AI assistant. Key swing factors over the next two months include Q3 results (expected late October), ongoing monetization efforts around excess AI compute capacity, and the high-profile child-safety litigation that opened in mid-August and carries substantial potential liability. These elements create uncertainty around near-term valuation multiples while underscoring Meta’s positioning in consumer AI and platform scale. The clustered probabilities in adjacent brackets reflect trader consensus that the stock is likely to remain range-bound through October absent major catalysts or setbacks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.25〜1.50兆ドル 43%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル 27%
1.50〜1.75兆ドル 27%
1.75〜2.00兆ドル 27%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
1兆ドル未満
25%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル
27%
1.25〜1.50兆ドル
43%
1.50〜1.75兆ドル
27%
1.75〜2.00兆ドル
27%
2.00〜2.25兆ドル
26%
2.25兆ドル以上
25%
1.25〜1.50兆ドル 43%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル 27%
1.50〜1.75兆ドル 27%
1.75〜2.00兆ドル 27%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
1兆ドル未満
$0 Vol.
25%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル
$0 Vol.
27%
1.25〜1.50兆ドル
$0 Vol.
43%
1.50〜1.75兆ドル
$0 Vol.
27%
1.75〜2.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
27%
2.00〜2.25兆ドル
$0 Vol.
26%
2.25兆ドル以上
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.**Meta’s current market capitalization hovers near $1.40 trillion (share price around $550 as of late August 2026), placing the $1.25–1.50T range as the leading Polymarket outcome at 42.5% implied probability.**
Traders appear anchored to this level given recent price action: the stock peaked near $790 in September 2025 before declining sharply, hitting a 52-week low of $520 in March 2026 and trading with notable volatility through mid-2026. Heavy AI infrastructure spending—Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145 billion—has compressed margins and free cash flow, contributing to the pullback even as revenue grew 28–33% year-over-year in recent quarters, supported by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency, Reels engagement gains, and the rollout of models such as the Muse family and Meta AI assistant.
Key swing factors over the next two months include Q3 results (expected late October), ongoing monetization efforts around excess AI compute capacity, and the high-profile child-safety litigation that opened in mid-August and carries substantial potential liability. These elements create uncertainty around near-term valuation multiples while underscoring Meta’s positioning in consumer AI and platform scale. The clustered probabilities in adjacent brackets reflect trader consensus that the stock is likely to remain range-bound through October absent major catalysts or setbacks.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.**Meta’s current market capitalization hovers near $1.40 trillion (share price around $550 as of late August 2026), placing the $1.25–1.50T range as the leading Polymarket outcome at 42.5% implied probability.**
Traders appear anchored to this level given recent price action: the stock peaked near $790 in September 2025 before declining sharply, hitting a 52-week low of $520 in March 2026 and trading with notable volatility through mid-2026. Heavy AI infrastructure spending—Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145 billion—has compressed margins and free cash flow, contributing to the pullback even as revenue grew 28–33% year-over-year in recent quarters, supported by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency, Reels engagement gains, and the rollout of models such as the Muse family and Meta AI assistant.
Key swing factors over the next two months include Q3 results (expected late October), ongoing monetization efforts around excess AI compute capacity, and the high-profile child-safety litigation that opened in mid-August and carries substantial potential liability. These elements create uncertainty around near-term valuation multiples while underscoring Meta’s positioning in consumer AI and platform scale. The clustered probabilities in adjacent brackets reflect trader consensus that the stock is likely to remain range-bound through October absent major catalysts or setbacks.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Meta’s current market capitalization hovers near $1.40 trillion (share price around $550 as of late August 2026), placing the $1.25–1.50T range as the leading Polymarket outcome at 42.5% implied probability.** Traders appear anchored to this level given recent price action: the stock peaked near $790 in September 2025 before declining sharply, hitting a 52-week low of $520 in March 2026 and trading with notable volatility through mid-2026. Heavy AI infrastructure spending—Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145 billion—has compressed margins and free cash flow, contributing to the pullback even as revenue grew 28–33% year-over-year in recent quarters, supported by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency, Reels engagement gains, and the rollout of models such as the Muse family and Meta AI assistant. Key swing factors over the next two months include Q3 results (expected late October), ongoing monetization efforts around excess AI compute capacity, and the high-profile child-safety litigation that opened in mid-August and carries substantial potential liability. These elements create uncertainty around near-term valuation multiples while underscoring Meta’s positioning in consumer AI and platform scale. The clustered probabilities in adjacent brackets reflect trader consensus that the stock is likely to remain range-bound through October absent major catalysts or setbacks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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