Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father’s death in the opening strikes of the U.S.-Israel conflict that began February 28. Since the appointment, he has issued only written statements and has not appeared publicly, prompting widespread reports of injuries sustained in an earlier airstrike and speculation that he may be receiving treatment abroad or remaining outside the country for security reasons. These factors, combined with ongoing cease-fire talks, U.S. statements questioning the durability of the new leadership, and internal uncertainty over decision-making authority, have shaped trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of any departure from Iran. Scheduled diplomatic meetings and any further military developments in the coming weeks remain the principal near-term variables that could alter the current market positioning.