US federal authorities captured Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military raid on his Caracas residence and transferred him to detention in New York, where he and his wife face indictments on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, weapons, and torture conspiracy charges. He has pleaded not guilty, asserted continued presidential status, and remains held at the Metropolitan Detention Center pending a 2027 trial following the recent reassignment of his case to a new judge. These ongoing criminal proceedings, combined with the absence of reported plea agreements or diplomatic releases, underpin trader consensus assigning very low probability to any custody exit before year-end. Scheduled court dates and Venezuelan political transitions under acting leadership represent the main variables that could alter timelines.