The August 2026 employment report, released September 4, showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing trader consensus around similar readings for September. This outcome, priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket, reflects the labor market's recent resilience, with rising labor force participation to 61.6% and modest improvements in broader measures like the U-6 rate. A 4.2% print follows at 26%, consistent with the gradual moderation trend seen in prior months amid slower immigration and demographic shifts. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release on September 11 and any subsequent Fed communications that could shape expectations ahead of the October 2 data. Markets continue to embed uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.1% 38%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 17%
4.3% 11%
新規
新規
2026/10/02
3.8％以下
5%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
17%
4.1%
38%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
11%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
5%
4.6%以上
3%
4.1% 38%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 17%
4.3% 11%
新規
新規
2026/10/02
3.8％以下
$589 Vol.
5%
3.9%
$105 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$62 Vol.
17%
4.1%
$697 Vol.
38%
4.2%
$84 Vol.
26%
4.3%
$62 Vol.
11%
4.4%
$176 Vol.
6%
4.5%
$505 Vol.
5%
4.6%以上
$505 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The August 2026 employment report, released September 4, showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing trader consensus around similar readings for September. This outcome, priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket, reflects the labor market's recent resilience, with rising labor force participation to 61.6% and modest improvements in broader measures like the U-6 rate. A 4.2% print follows at 26%, consistent with the gradual moderation trend seen in prior months amid slower immigration and demographic shifts. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release on September 11 and any subsequent Fed communications that could shape expectations ahead of the October 2 data. Markets continue to embed uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
音量
$2,786終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The August 2026 employment report, released September 4, showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing trader consensus around similar readings for September. This outcome, priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket, reflects the labor market's recent resilience, with rising labor force participation to 61.6% and modest improvements in broader measures like the U-6 rate. A 4.2% print follows at 26%, consistent with the gradual moderation trend seen in prior months amid slower immigration and demographic shifts. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release on September 11 and any subsequent Fed communications that could shape expectations ahead of the October 2 data. Markets continue to embed uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$2,786終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETThe August 2026 employment report, released September 4, showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, reinforcing trader consensus around similar readings for September. This outcome, priced at 38% implied probability on Polymarket, reflects the labor market's recent resilience, with rising labor force participation to 61.6% and modest improvements in broader measures like the U-6 rate. A 4.2% print follows at 26%, consistent with the gradual moderation trend seen in prior months amid slower immigration and demographic shifts. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release on September 11 and any subsequent Fed communications that could shape expectations ahead of the October 2 data. Markets continue to embed uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問