Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end S&P 500 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin holding a slim 27% implied probability edge over $6,500-$7,000 at 24%, reflecting tug-of-war between tech-driven gains and sticky inflation risks. April 2026 core CPI came in hotter than expected, prompting a market pullback last week amid surging oil prices, even as the index notched YTD gains of 8.75% to hover near 7,444. The Fed's April 29 decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%—with notable dissent—dashed near-term rate cut hopes despite stable 4.3% unemployment. Bullish analyst targets like Yardeni's 8,250 highlight AI productivity tailwinds, but trader consensus embeds caution on valuations and growth slowdowns ahead of June FOMC and May CPI data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7,000～7,500ドル 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 15%
6,500〜7,000ドル 15%
6,000ドル未満 14%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
14%
6,000～6,500ドル
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
21%
7,000～7,500ドル
28%
7,500～8,000ドル
15%
8,000ドル超
13%
7,000～7,500ドル 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 15%
6,500〜7,000ドル 15%
6,000ドル未満 14%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$15,544 Vol.
14%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,479 Vol.
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$2,389 Vol.
21%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,114 Vol.
28%
7,500～8,000ドル
$2,401 Vol.
15%
8,000ドル超
$2,293 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end S&P 500 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin holding a slim 27% implied probability edge over $6,500-$7,000 at 24%, reflecting tug-of-war between tech-driven gains and sticky inflation risks. April 2026 core CPI came in hotter than expected, prompting a market pullback last week amid surging oil prices, even as the index notched YTD gains of 8.75% to hover near 7,444. The Fed's April 29 decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%—with notable dissent—dashed near-term rate cut hopes despite stable 4.3% unemployment. Bullish analyst targets like Yardeni's 8,250 highlight AI productivity tailwinds, but trader consensus embeds caution on valuations and growth slowdowns ahead of June FOMC and May CPI data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$25,219終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a closely contested year-end S&P 500 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin holding a slim 27% implied probability edge over $6,500-$7,000 at 24%, reflecting tug-of-war between tech-driven gains and sticky inflation risks. April 2026 core CPI came in hotter than expected, prompting a market pullback last week amid surging oil prices, even as the index notched YTD gains of 8.75% to hover near 7,444. The Fed's April 29 decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%—with notable dissent—dashed near-term rate cut hopes despite stable 4.3% unemployment. Bullish analyst targets like Yardeni's 8,250 highlight AI productivity tailwinds, but trader consensus embeds caution on valuations and growth slowdowns ahead of June FOMC and May CPI data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$25,219終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders price a closely contested year-end S&P 500 close, with the $7,000-$7,500 bin holding a slim 27% implied probability edge over $6,500-$7,000 at 24%, reflecting tug-of-war between tech-driven gains and sticky inflation risks. April 2026 core CPI came in hotter than expected, prompting a market pullback last week amid surging oil prices, even as the index notched YTD gains of 8.75% to hover near 7,444. The Fed's April 29 decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75%—with notable dissent—dashed near-term rate cut hopes despite stable 4.3% unemployment. Bullish analyst targets like Yardeni's 8,250 highlight AI productivity tailwinds, but trader consensus embeds caution on valuations and growth slowdowns ahead of June FOMC and May CPI data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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