Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly the S&P 500's blended Q2 2026 rate exceeding 50%, combined with resilient U.S. economic data and easing inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the market-implied 38% probability for a year-end close above 8,000. The index, recently trading near 7,750 at record levels, benefits from upgraded analyst targets such as Goldman Sachs' 8,000 forecast and sustained revenue expansion of 15%. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid above-target core inflation, traders price in continued equity momentum through year-end, though sticky price pressures and valuation levels introduce uncertainty around the $7,500-$8,000 band holding the next-highest 21% implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 35%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
7,000～7,500ドル 16%
6,500〜7,000ドル 13%
$39,542 Vol.
$39,542 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
9%
6,500〜7,000ドル
13%
7,000～7,500ドル
17%
7,500～8,000ドル
21%
8,000ドル超
39%
8,000ドル超 35%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
7,000～7,500ドル 16%
6,500〜7,000ドル 13%
$39,542 Vol.
$39,542 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$20,382 Vol.
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,301 Vol.
9%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,408 Vol.
13%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,460 Vol.
17%
7,500～8,000ドル
$3,974 Vol.
21%
8,000ドル超
$6,018 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly the S&P 500's blended Q2 2026 rate exceeding 50%, combined with resilient U.S. economic data and easing inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the market-implied 38% probability for a year-end close above 8,000. The index, recently trading near 7,750 at record levels, benefits from upgraded analyst targets such as Goldman Sachs' 8,000 forecast and sustained revenue expansion of 15%. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid above-target core inflation, traders price in continued equity momentum through year-end, though sticky price pressures and valuation levels introduce uncertainty around the $7,500-$8,000 band holding the next-highest 21% implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$39,542終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, particularly the S&P 500's blended Q2 2026 rate exceeding 50%, combined with resilient U.S. economic data and easing inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the market-implied 38% probability for a year-end close above 8,000. The index, recently trading near 7,750 at record levels, benefits from upgraded analyst targets such as Goldman Sachs' 8,000 forecast and sustained revenue expansion of 15%. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid above-target core inflation, traders price in continued equity momentum through year-end, though sticky price pressures and valuation levels introduce uncertainty around the $7,500-$8,000 band holding the next-highest 21% implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$39,542終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong corporate earnings growth, particularly the S&P 500's blended Q2 2026 rate exceeding 50%, combined with resilient U.S. economic data and easing inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the market-implied 38% probability for a year-end close above 8,000. The index, recently trading near 7,750 at record levels, benefits from upgraded analyst targets such as Goldman Sachs' 8,000 forecast and sustained revenue expansion of 15%. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% amid above-target core inflation, traders price in continued equity momentum through year-end, though sticky price pressures and valuation levels introduce uncertainty around the $7,500-$8,000 band holding the next-highest 21% implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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