Strong corporate earnings growth, projected at 25% for full-year 2026 and led by AI-related technology gains, underpins the 43.5% market-implied probability of an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index trading near record levels around 7,800 in mid-August amid 14% year-to-date gains, resilient consumer spending and business investment have supported valuations despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation pressures from energy costs and tariffs have shifted expectations toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts, tempering enthusiasm for sharper upside while capping downside risk below 7,000 at under 27% combined. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC decisions and further earnings reports that could refine these aggregated trader probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 44%
7,500～8,000ドル 22%
7,000～7,500ドル 18%
6,500〜7,000ドル 14%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
8%
6,500〜7,000ドル
14%
7,000～7,500ドル
18%
7,500～8,000ドル
22%
8,000ドル超
44%
8,000ドル超 44%
7,500～8,000ドル 22%
7,000～7,500ドル 18%
6,500〜7,000ドル 14%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$20,527 Vol.
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,312 Vol.
8%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,408 Vol.
14%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,460 Vol.
18%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,035 Vol.
22%
8,000ドル超
$6,048 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, projected at 25% for full-year 2026 and led by AI-related technology gains, underpins the 43.5% market-implied probability of an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index trading near record levels around 7,800 in mid-August amid 14% year-to-date gains, resilient consumer spending and business investment have supported valuations despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation pressures from energy costs and tariffs have shifted expectations toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts, tempering enthusiasm for sharper upside while capping downside risk below 7,000 at under 27% combined. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC decisions and further earnings reports that could refine these aggregated trader probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$39,789終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, projected at 25% for full-year 2026 and led by AI-related technology gains, underpins the 43.5% market-implied probability of an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index trading near record levels around 7,800 in mid-August amid 14% year-to-date gains, resilient consumer spending and business investment have supported valuations despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation pressures from energy costs and tariffs have shifted expectations toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts, tempering enthusiasm for sharper upside while capping downside risk below 7,000 at under 27% combined. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC decisions and further earnings reports that could refine these aggregated trader probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$39,789終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong corporate earnings growth, projected at 25% for full-year 2026 and led by AI-related technology gains, underpins the 43.5% market-implied probability of an S&P 500 close above 8,000. With the index trading near record levels around 7,800 in mid-August amid 14% year-to-date gains, resilient consumer spending and business investment have supported valuations despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation pressures from energy costs and tariffs have shifted expectations toward potential rate hikes rather than cuts, tempering enthusiasm for sharper upside while capping downside risk below 7,000 at under 27% combined. Key upcoming catalysts include September FOMC decisions and further earnings reports that could refine these aggregated trader probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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