**No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is the current trader consensus at 63.5% implied probability.** The two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (age 77) and Samuel Alito (age 76), are the only plausible sources of a 2026 opening given modern retirement patterns, where justices have departed at an average age near 80. Both have signaled through associates that they intend to remain on the bench at least through 2026, and neither has made any public statements indicating plans to retire. Speculation peaked in April–May 2026 amid discussions of strategic timing before the November midterms and President Trump’s opportunity for a fourth appointment, yet direct reporting from sources close to the justices has consistently pushed back against near-term departures. Alito’s brief hospitalization earlier in the year produced no further indications of health-related exit. With no confirmed announcements, court statements, or procedural triggers pointing to a vacancy before year-end, and younger justices showing no signs of stepping down, market pricing reflects the absence of concrete developments that would shift the baseline expectation of continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,222 Vol.
$13,222 Vol.
$13,222 Vol.
$13,222 Vol.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court is the current trader consensus at 63.5% implied probability.** The two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (age 77) and Samuel Alito (age 76), are the only plausible sources of a 2026 opening given modern retirement patterns, where justices have departed at an average age near 80. Both have signaled through associates that they intend to remain on the bench at least through 2026, and neither has made any public statements indicating plans to retire. Speculation peaked in April–May 2026 amid discussions of strategic timing before the November midterms and President Trump’s opportunity for a fourth appointment, yet direct reporting from sources close to the justices has consistently pushed back against near-term departures. Alito’s brief hospitalization earlier in the year produced no further indications of health-related exit. With no confirmed announcements, court statements, or procedural triggers pointing to a vacancy before year-end, and younger justices showing no signs of stepping down, market pricing reflects the absence of concrete developments that would shift the baseline expectation of continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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