Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party continues preparatory work on constitutional reform through a commission appointed by President Erdogan, with recent statements from senior officials emphasizing the need to replace the 1982 charter amid ongoing security and societal shifts. However, advancing a new constitution requires at least 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum or 400 to enact changes directly, thresholds the AKP cannot meet without opposition backing that remains absent. Legislative priorities have instead centered on related processes such as the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative and limited seat adjustments, keeping full constitutional debate at an early stage without scheduled floor action or broad consensus by year-end. Traders therefore assign an elevated probability to no substantive move occurring in 2026.