**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” because Turkey has made no concrete legislative progress toward a new constitution in 2026 despite earlier steps.** President Erdoğan appointed a ten-member legal commission in May 2025 to draft a civilian charter, yet the group has produced no parliamentary bill, cross-party agreement, or referendum announcement by mid-2026. The ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly—well short of the 360 votes needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties remain opposed and Kurdish support hinges on unresolved negotiations tied to the PKK peace process. Analysts note that any term-limit adjustment for Erdoğan could instead occur through early elections rather than wholesale constitutional overhaul. These structural and political barriers, unchanged in recent months, underpin the market’s strong consensus against meaningful movement before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” because Turkey has made no concrete legislative progress toward a new constitution in 2026 despite earlier steps.** President Erdoğan appointed a ten-member legal commission in May 2025 to draft a civilian charter, yet the group has produced no parliamentary bill, cross-party agreement, or referendum announcement by mid-2026. The ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly—well short of the 360 votes needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties remain opposed and Kurdish support hinges on unresolved negotiations tied to the PKK peace process. Analysts note that any term-limit adjustment for Erdoğan could instead occur through early elections rather than wholesale constitutional overhaul. These structural and political barriers, unchanged in recent months, underpin the market’s strong consensus against meaningful movement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$4,368終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” because Turkey has made no concrete legislative progress toward a new constitution in 2026 despite earlier steps.** President Erdoğan appointed a ten-member legal commission in May 2025 to draft a civilian charter, yet the group has produced no parliamentary bill, cross-party agreement, or referendum announcement by mid-2026. The ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly—well short of the 360 votes needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties remain opposed and Kurdish support hinges on unresolved negotiations tied to the PKK peace process. Analysts note that any term-limit adjustment for Erdoğan could instead occur through early elections rather than wholesale constitutional overhaul. These structural and political barriers, unchanged in recent months, underpin the market’s strong consensus against meaningful movement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$4,368終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86% probability to “No” because Turkey has made no concrete legislative progress toward a new constitution in 2026 despite earlier steps.** President Erdoğan appointed a ten-member legal commission in May 2025 to draft a civilian charter, yet the group has produced no parliamentary bill, cross-party agreement, or referendum announcement by mid-2026. The ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly—well short of the 360 votes needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment—while opposition parties remain opposed and Kurdish support hinges on unresolved negotiations tied to the PKK peace process. Analysts note that any term-limit adjustment for Erdoğan could instead occur through early elections rather than wholesale constitutional overhaul. These structural and political barriers, unchanged in recent months, underpin the market’s strong consensus against meaningful movement before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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