President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners continue to advance preparations for a new civilian constitution, including the May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and repeated public statements through mid-2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism in June 2026 that adoption could occur in 2026–2027. However, traders assign only an 18% probability of a referendum announcement by year-end because the ruling bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a popular vote. Securing additional support from opposition parties or the DEM Party remains elusive amid competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic. These structural and legislative barriers explain the strong market consensus against movement in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners continue to advance preparations for a new civilian constitution, including the May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and repeated public statements through mid-2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism in June 2026 that adoption could occur in 2026–2027. However, traders assign only an 18% probability of a referendum announcement by year-end because the ruling bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a popular vote. Securing additional support from opposition parties or the DEM Party remains elusive amid competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic. These structural and legislative barriers explain the strong market consensus against movement in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$6,170終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners continue to advance preparations for a new civilian constitution, including the May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and repeated public statements through mid-2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism in June 2026 that adoption could occur in 2026–2027. However, traders assign only an 18% probability of a referendum announcement by year-end because the ruling bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a popular vote. Securing additional support from opposition parties or the DEM Party remains elusive amid competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic. These structural and legislative barriers explain the strong market consensus against movement in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,170終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners continue to advance preparations for a new civilian constitution, including the May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and repeated public statements through mid-2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism in June 2026 that adoption could occur in 2026–2027. However, traders assign only an 18% probability of a referendum announcement by year-end because the ruling bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a popular vote. Securing additional support from opposition parties or the DEM Party remains elusive amid competing priorities such as the PKK peace process and coalition arithmetic. These structural and legislative barriers explain the strong market consensus against movement in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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