Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed to send a new constitution to a public referendum. President Erdoğan has renewed calls for a “civilian constitution” and a presidential commission has been drafting proposals since 2025, yet party statements and parliamentary leaders continue to emphasize term-limit workarounds such as snap elections rather than a full charter overhaul. Opposition parties remain opposed, and no formal timetable or cross-party agreement has emerged in 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no referendum will be officially announced by year-end, reflecting the procedural and coalition hurdles that have so far prevented the measure from advancing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed to send a new constitution to a public referendum. President Erdoğan has renewed calls for a “civilian constitution” and a presidential commission has been drafting proposals since 2025, yet party statements and parliamentary leaders continue to emphasize term-limit workarounds such as snap elections rather than a full charter overhaul. Opposition parties remain opposed, and no formal timetable or cross-party agreement has emerged in 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no referendum will be officially announced by year-end, reflecting the procedural and coalition hurdles that have so far prevented the measure from advancing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
音量
$6,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed to send a new constitution to a public referendum. President Erdoğan has renewed calls for a “civilian constitution” and a presidential commission has been drafting proposals since 2025, yet party statements and parliamentary leaders continue to emphasize term-limit workarounds such as snap elections rather than a full charter overhaul. Opposition parties remain opposed, and no formal timetable or cross-party agreement has emerged in 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no referendum will be officially announced by year-end, reflecting the procedural and coalition hurdles that have so far prevented the measure from advancing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed to send a new constitution to a public referendum. President Erdoğan has renewed calls for a “civilian constitution” and a presidential commission has been drafting proposals since 2025, yet party statements and parliamentary leaders continue to emphasize term-limit workarounds such as snap elections rather than a full charter overhaul. Opposition parties remain opposed, and no formal timetable or cross-party agreement has emerged in 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86 percent probability that no referendum will be officially announced by year-end, reflecting the procedural and coalition hurdles that have so far prevented the measure from advancing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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