The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro shifted Venezuela’s leadership dynamics, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president through Supreme Tribunal of Justice orders and military backing. This continuity of Chavista institutions, including retained roles for figures such as Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, underpins trader consensus favoring Maduro at end-2026 despite his absence, while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative amid partial sanctions relief and oil-sector reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, operating from exile, has urged swift elections and democratic transition but faces institutional barriers that limit near-term probability shifts. Recent statements on sovereignty and ongoing coalition pressures within the ruling party further sustain the current distribution of implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ニコラス・マドゥロ 64.1%
デルシー・ロドリゲス 21%
マリア・コリナ・マチャド 7%
ホルヘ・ロドリゲス 1.1%
$88,262,776 Vol.
$88,262,776 Vol.
2026/12/31
ニコラス・マドゥロ
64%
デルシー・ロドリゲス
21%
マリア・コリナ・マチャド
7%
ホルヘ・ロドリゲス
1%
エドムンド・ゴンサレス
1%
ディオスダド・カベジョ・ロンドン
1%
ドナルド・トランプ
1%
元首不在
1%
ディノラ・フィゲーラ
<1%
ウラジミール・パドリーノ・ロペス
<1%
エヴァン・ペトゥス
<1%
ダン・ケイン
<1%
マルコ・ルビオ
<1%
ピート・ヘグセス
<1%
フランク・ドノバン
<1%
リチャード・グレネル
<1%
ニコラス・マドゥロ 64.1%
デルシー・ロドリゲス 21%
マリア・コリナ・マチャド 7%
ホルヘ・ロドリゲス 1.1%
$88,262,776 Vol.
$88,262,776 Vol.
2026/12/31
ニコラス・マドゥロ
$1,706,096 Vol.
64%
デルシー・ロドリゲス
$1,597,660 Vol.
21%
マリア・コリナ・マチャド
$1,056,550 Vol.
7%
ホルヘ・ロドリゲス
$1,003,219 Vol.
1%
エドムンド・ゴンサレス
$827,292 Vol.
1%
ディオスダド・カベジョ・ロンドン
$1,684,621 Vol.
1%
ドナルド・トランプ
$913,215 Vol.
1%
元首不在
$1,077,853 Vol.
1%
ディノラ・フィゲーラ
$2,339,329 Vol.
<1%
ウラジミール・パドリーノ・ロペス
$666,521 Vol.
<1%
エヴァン・ペトゥス
$5,165,393 Vol.
<1%
ダン・ケイン
$3,567,018 Vol.
<1%
マルコ・ルビオ
$981,400 Vol.
<1%
ピート・ヘグセス
$8,600,801 Vol.
<1%
フランク・ドノバン
$25,057,031 Vol.
<1%
リチャード・グレネル
$32,018,797 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro shifted Venezuela’s leadership dynamics, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president through Supreme Tribunal of Justice orders and military backing. This continuity of Chavista institutions, including retained roles for figures such as Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, underpins trader consensus favoring Maduro at end-2026 despite his absence, while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative amid partial sanctions relief and oil-sector reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, operating from exile, has urged swift elections and democratic transition but faces institutional barriers that limit near-term probability shifts. Recent statements on sovereignty and ongoing coalition pressures within the ruling party further sustain the current distribution of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$88,262,776終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro shifted Venezuela’s leadership dynamics, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president through Supreme Tribunal of Justice orders and military backing. This continuity of Chavista institutions, including retained roles for figures such as Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, underpins trader consensus favoring Maduro at end-2026 despite his absence, while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative amid partial sanctions relief and oil-sector reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, operating from exile, has urged swift elections and democratic transition but faces institutional barriers that limit near-term probability shifts. Recent statements on sovereignty and ongoing coalition pressures within the ruling party further sustain the current distribution of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
音量
$88,262,776終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro shifted Venezuela’s leadership dynamics, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president through Supreme Tribunal of Justice orders and military backing. This continuity of Chavista institutions, including retained roles for figures such as Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, underpins trader consensus favoring Maduro at end-2026 despite his absence, while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative amid partial sanctions relief and oil-sector reforms. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, operating from exile, has urged swift elections and democratic transition but faces institutional barriers that limit near-term probability shifts. Recent statements on sovereignty and ongoing coalition pressures within the ruling party further sustain the current distribution of implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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