Anthropic leads the market at 63.5% implied probability due to its targeted advances in reliable agentic systems, including the April 2026 launch of Claude Managed Agents for rapid enterprise deployment and May's Code with Claude features like multi-agent orchestration and Cowork desktop tools. These build on Claude's strengths in long-context reasoning, precise instruction-following, and tool use for complex workflows, as shown in recent comparisons where it outperforms OpenAI on agent benchmarks and coding tasks. OpenAI trails at 33.5% thanks to its ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5 series ecosystem, which excel in multimodal breadth but lag in consistent multi-step autonomy. Other labs remain far behind amid slower agent-specific progress. Key catalysts through October include potential new model releases, developer conferences, and benchmark updates that could shift trader views on production-ready capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 34%
ムーンショット 2.6%
アリババ 1.3%

Anthropic
64%

OpenAI
34%

ムーンショット
3%

アリババ
1%

Z.ai
1%

Meta
1%

Xiaomi
1%

ByteDance
1%

アマゾン
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Nvidia
1%

美団(Meituan)
1%

<1%

Baidu
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 34%
ムーンショット 2.6%
アリババ 1.3%

Anthropic
64%

OpenAI
34%

ムーンショット
3%

アリババ
1%

Z.ai
1%

Meta
1%

Xiaomi
1%

ByteDance
1%

アマゾン
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Nvidia
1%

美団(Meituan)
1%

<1%

Baidu
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads the market at 63.5% implied probability due to its targeted advances in reliable agentic systems, including the April 2026 launch of Claude Managed Agents for rapid enterprise deployment and May's Code with Claude features like multi-agent orchestration and Cowork desktop tools. These build on Claude's strengths in long-context reasoning, precise instruction-following, and tool use for complex workflows, as shown in recent comparisons where it outperforms OpenAI on agent benchmarks and coding tasks. OpenAI trails at 33.5% thanks to its ChatGPT Operator and GPT-5 series ecosystem, which excel in multimodal breadth but lag in consistent multi-step autonomy. Other labs remain far behind amid slower agent-specific progress. Key catalysts through October include potential new model releases, developer conferences, and benchmark updates that could shift trader views on production-ready capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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