Banksy’s official Instagram functions primarily as a verification channel for new street works rather than a regular feed, and the 72% market-implied probability for “No” by September 30 reflects the artist’s pattern of extended quiet periods between authenticated drops. With the market opening September 2 and no high-profile mural, political flashpoint, or London installation emerging in late August or early September, traders see limited near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows posts clustered around major pieces, and the roughly four-week window offers modest room for an unexpected development to shift consensus. Key swing factors remain any surprise release or UK cultural event that would prompt rapid authentication before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日バンクシーは9月30日までにInstagramに投稿しますか？
バンクシーは9月30日までにInstagramに投稿しますか？
はい
28% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
はい
28% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).Banksy’s official Instagram functions primarily as a verification channel for new street works rather than a regular feed, and the 72% market-implied probability for “No” by September 30 reflects the artist’s pattern of extended quiet periods between authenticated drops. With the market opening September 2 and no high-profile mural, political flashpoint, or London installation emerging in late August or early September, traders see limited near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows posts clustered around major pieces, and the roughly four-week window offers modest room for an unexpected development to shift consensus. Key swing factors remain any surprise release or UK cultural event that would prompt rapid authentication before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
音量
$2終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 12:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).Banksy’s official Instagram functions primarily as a verification channel for new street works rather than a regular feed, and the 72% market-implied probability for “No” by September 30 reflects the artist’s pattern of extended quiet periods between authenticated drops. With the market opening September 2 and no high-profile mural, political flashpoint, or London installation emerging in late August or early September, traders see limited near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows posts clustered around major pieces, and the roughly four-week window offers modest room for an unexpected development to shift consensus. Key swing factors remain any surprise release or UK cultural event that would prompt rapid authentication before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy) publishes a new post between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
Qualifying content includes only feed posts (single image, carousel, or video). Comments, replies, Notes, direct messages, stories, live broadcasts, profile picture changes, bio or link changes, and edits to previously published content will not qualify.
Posts will qualify regardless of later deletion.
Content published before market creation will not qualify, including previously published content that is unarchived, restored, or otherwise reappears on the account within this market's timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be content publicly visible on the official Banksy Instagram account (@banksy).
音量
$2終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 12:12 PM ETBanksy’s official Instagram functions primarily as a verification channel for new street works rather than a regular feed, and the 72% market-implied probability for “No” by September 30 reflects the artist’s pattern of extended quiet periods between authenticated drops. With the market opening September 2 and no high-profile mural, political flashpoint, or London installation emerging in late August or early September, traders see limited near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows posts clustered around major pieces, and the roughly four-week window offers modest room for an unexpected development to shift consensus. Key swing factors remain any surprise release or UK cultural event that would prompt rapid authentication before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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