Tesla’s lack of required California DMV and CPUC permits for unsupervised autonomous passenger service remains the dominant factor behind the 81% market-implied probability of no launch by December 31, 2026. The company operates only under a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates a human driver, unlike Waymo’s expanding driverless operations across 18 counties. Tesla has not filed for the necessary autonomous vehicle deployment approvals, and the state’s multi-agency review process has historically taken years even for well-prepared operators. Recent Cybercab launches in Texas and limited supervised rides elsewhere have not translated to California regulatory progress, leaving little time for approvals, testing, and commercial rollout before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
20% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
20% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s lack of required California DMV and CPUC permits for unsupervised autonomous passenger service remains the dominant factor behind the 81% market-implied probability of no launch by December 31, 2026. The company operates only under a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates a human driver, unlike Waymo’s expanding driverless operations across 18 counties. Tesla has not filed for the necessary autonomous vehicle deployment approvals, and the state’s multi-agency review process has historically taken years even for well-prepared operators. Recent Cybercab launches in Texas and limited supervised rides elsewhere have not translated to California regulatory progress, leaving little time for approvals, testing, and commercial rollout before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
音量
$7,496終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s lack of required California DMV and CPUC permits for unsupervised autonomous passenger service remains the dominant factor behind the 81% market-implied probability of no launch by December 31, 2026. The company operates only under a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates a human driver, unlike Waymo’s expanding driverless operations across 18 counties. Tesla has not filed for the necessary autonomous vehicle deployment approvals, and the state’s multi-agency review process has historically taken years even for well-prepared operators. Recent Cybercab launches in Texas and limited supervised rides elsewhere have not translated to California regulatory progress, leaving little time for approvals, testing, and commercial rollout before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$7,496終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s lack of required California DMV and CPUC permits for unsupervised autonomous passenger service remains the dominant factor behind the 81% market-implied probability of no launch by December 31, 2026. The company operates only under a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates a human driver, unlike Waymo’s expanding driverless operations across 18 counties. Tesla has not filed for the necessary autonomous vehicle deployment approvals, and the state’s multi-agency review process has historically taken years even for well-prepared operators. Recent Cybercab launches in Texas and limited supervised rides elsewhere have not translated to California regulatory progress, leaving little time for approvals, testing, and commercial rollout before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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