Trader consensus prices May 1-3, 2026 global average surface temperatures as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), with a solid 32% chance of first, reflecting preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data showing exceptionally high anomalies amid persistent anthropogenic warming. April 2026 ranked joint third-warmest on record per Copernicus (14.89°C average, 1.43°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline), following March's fourth-warmest at 1.45°C above baseline (Berkeley Earth). ENSO-neutral conditions sustain elevated baselines from reduced aerosols and greenhouse gas accumulation, with limited La Niña cooling. Final Berkeley Earth daily land-ocean rankings expected late May will resolve the market, though minor adjustments possible from observational refinements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 56%
1st hottest 33%
3rd hottest 10.7%
4th or lower 2.4%
$92,221 거래량
$92,221 거래량
2026.06.10
1st hottest
33%
2nd hottest
56%
3rd hottest
11%
4th or lower
2%
2nd hottest 56%
1st hottest 33%
3rd hottest 10.7%
4th or lower 2.4%
$92,221 거래량
$92,221 거래량
2026.06.10
1st hottest
$8,788 거래량
33%
2nd hottest
$1,610 거래량
56%
3rd hottest
$38,158 거래량
11%
4th or lower
$43,665 거래량
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus prices May 1-3, 2026 global average surface temperatures as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), with a solid 32% chance of first, reflecting preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data showing exceptionally high anomalies amid persistent anthropogenic warming. April 2026 ranked joint third-warmest on record per Copernicus (14.89°C average, 1.43°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline), following March's fourth-warmest at 1.45°C above baseline (Berkeley Earth). ENSO-neutral conditions sustain elevated baselines from reduced aerosols and greenhouse gas accumulation, with limited La Niña cooling. Final Berkeley Earth daily land-ocean rankings expected late May will resolve the market, though minor adjustments possible from observational refinements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
거래량
$92,221종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus prices May 1-3, 2026 global average surface temperatures as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), with a solid 32% chance of first, reflecting preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data showing exceptionally high anomalies amid persistent anthropogenic warming. April 2026 ranked joint third-warmest on record per Copernicus (14.89°C average, 1.43°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline), following March's fourth-warmest at 1.45°C above baseline (Berkeley Earth). ENSO-neutral conditions sustain elevated baselines from reduced aerosols and greenhouse gas accumulation, with limited La Niña cooling. Final Berkeley Earth daily land-ocean rankings expected late May will resolve the market, though minor adjustments possible from observational refinements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$92,221종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices May 1-3, 2026 global average surface temperatures as the second-hottest on record (56% implied probability), with a solid 32% chance of first, reflecting preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data showing exceptionally high anomalies amid persistent anthropogenic warming. April 2026 ranked joint third-warmest on record per Copernicus (14.89°C average, 1.43°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline), following March's fourth-warmest at 1.45°C above baseline (Berkeley Earth). ENSO-neutral conditions sustain elevated baselines from reduced aerosols and greenhouse gas accumulation, with limited La Niña cooling. Final Berkeley Earth daily land-ocean rankings expected late May will resolve the market, though minor adjustments possible from observational refinements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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