Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$135,915 거래량
$135,915 거래량
2027.01.10
예
$135,915 거래량
$135,915 거래량
2027.01.10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
거래량
$135,915종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$135,915종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문